1 min readApr 17, 2020
Thanks, Perry. We did not make any adjustments to our predictions related to the makeup of underlying populations which might have introduced COVID to Malawi. While in this case it is true that the earliest confirmed cases were imported from Europe and Asia, we are looking at the eventual spread and severity of COVID through community contacts. This community spread will likely, if it hasn’t already, dwarfed the risk of imports (especially given border and travel restrictions).